A fox, a hedgehog and an LLM – it sounds like the beginning of a joke, but this is in fact the introduction to a topic that is consuming the attention of Philip Tetlock, psychology professor, ...

Every three months, participants in the Metaculus forecasting cup try to predict the future for a prize pot of about $5,000. Metaculus, a forecasting platform, poses questions of geopolitical ...

I had been trawling absent-mindedly through the ABC's internal digital archive in a vague search for inspiration and clicked ...

It's impossible to predict the future, but humans can't help themselves. From the economy to the presidency to the Super Bowl, educated and intelligent people promise insight yet repeatedly fail by ...

Mathematicians may have a better way to measure agreement across different datasets. Agreement affects reproducibility, meta-analysis, and prediction to fill in missing data points. We need a more ...

Because if you have and you’ve done so on more than one occasion, consider yourself clairvoyant. Scientists define having a “gut feeling” as an unwavering strange feeling that something will occur in ...