The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model slid deeper into the red on Monday, estimating that Q1 GDP will sink 2.8% on a seasonally adjusted annual rate, from the 1.5% decline it estimated on Friday. The nowcast factored in Monday's release of the February ISM,

On February 28, the #GDPNow model nowcast of real GDP growth in Q1 2025 is -1.5%: https://t.co/T7FoDdgYos. #ATLFedResearch Download our EconomyNow app or go to our website for the latest GDPNow nowcast: https://t.co/NOSwMl7Jms. pic.twitter.com/HhndH6BirX

The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model on Friday lowered its forecast for the U.S. economy to a contraction at a 1.5% annual rate. This would be the first quarterly contraction in the economy since the first quarter of 2022.

The US economy is already slipping in 2025, and the numbers don’t look good for President Donald Trump, who took the Oval back on January 20. According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, GDP is on track to contract by 1.