The EU says the U.S. is resisting efforts to strike a trade deal and warned of countermeasures if no agreement is reached with U.S. by Aug. 1.

"A tariff of 30% on EU exports would probably have the eurozone economy flirting with, but avoiding, a recession," said Rory Fennessy, senior economist at Oxford Economics. This fits Trump's playbook — he threatened 50% tariffs in May, "only to quickly backtrack following discussions with EU politicians."