There's a mid-March deadline to avoid a partial government shutdown, and hesitation is surfacing among congressional Republicans about potential cuts to Medicaid.

The possibility of Medicaid cuts has become a headache for the most vulnerable Republicans in Congress — and has handed Democrats a potent issue ahead of 2026 elections.

In theory, the budget, which kicks off the process of passing an extension of tax cuts enacted in 2017 and up to $2 trillion in spending cuts meant to partly offset them, could become law without significant cuts to Medicaid. But it won’t be easy.

Medicaid provides health insurance for roughly one in five Americans, covering impoverished children, low-income adults, and seniors and those with disabilities reliant on care at home.

The president has said his administration “won’t touch” entitlement programs. Past efforts to do so have backfired on Trump and other politicians.

House Republicans passed a budget plan that seeks to extend tax cuts enacted in 2018 and reduce Medicaid spending. The proposal could save $1.9 trillion over ten years.