The storm isn't expected to hit the U.S. mainland, but could create dangerous surf conditions and rip currents.

The key to the severity of impacts in the Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico from strengthening Erin depends on how soon a turn to the northwest occurs with a near-miss versus a direct hit.

The NHC forecast advisory predicts Erin will continue westward today before bending west‑northwest tonight and through the weekend as a weakness develops in the subtropical ridge. Forecast positions show the storm moving from 16.